The World Will End in 2012 --The Mayans (But Not Really)
Let's get one thing clear: The ancient Mayans did not believe the world was going to end on Dec. 21, 2012, and it's not even certain the date had any significance for them. Some archeologists believe that Dec. 21 will mark the end of the "Great Cycle" of 13 baktuns, the 1,872,000-day periods that are the largest unit of time on the ancient Mayan calendar, which is no longer in use among the Mayans' descendents. Others believe it will be Dec. 23 or a different day entirely. So where did the idea that Dec. 21 = the apocalypse come from? Author Michael Coe first popularized the theory that the Mayans believed this date is when the world would end -- for what it's worth, he didn't actually believe they were right -- but later archeologists disputed his interpretation and recently discovered calendars that show dates thousands of years past 2012.
None of that has stopped a cottage industry of doomsday prophets from cashing in on the phenomenon, often connecting it to similarly crackpot ideas about solar flares, shifting global polarities, extraterrestrials, and the phantom planet Nibiru (and of course, that movie).
It's easy to laugh at the 2012ers, though the hysteria has had occasionally tragic consequences. An Ipsos poll conducted in 21 countries this year found that 8 percent of respondents were experiencing anxiety over the "prophesy." In Russia, there have been several documented cases of "collective mass hysteria" over the date, with worried citizens raiding stores to stock up for the apocalypse. In China, more than 1,000 members of a doomsday cult preparing for the apocalypse on Dec. 21 were arrested.
In any event, if you're reading this, it appears we made it.
The Romney Landslide --Dick Morris
"It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history.' It will rekindle the whole question as to why the media played this race as a nail-biter where in fact I think Romney's going to win by quite a bit." --Nov. 4
Foreign Policy did a full list of bad election predictions here, but Dick Morris, the Fox News talking head and political consultant whose insights on voting behavior once guided President Bill Clinton's policy decisions, probably took the biggest hit to his reputation with his 325-electoral-votes-for-Romney call. Morris, who has since been put on probation at the conservative network, later said he had "mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to 'normal' levels."
Of course, the famed polling guru could always have consulted some actual polls -- but that's not how you sell books.
One-Term Proposition --Barack Obama
"You know, I've got four years.' And, you know, a year from now I think people are going to see that we're starting to make some progress. But there's still going to be some pain out there. If I don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition." --Feb. 1, 2009
U.S. President Barack Obama underestimated either the patience of American voters or his own political skill in this response to a question from Matt Lauer on his economic plans, including buying toxic assets from banks and increasing stimulus spending. The quote became a favorite applause line for Republican candidate Mitt Romney during the 2012 presidential campaign. As Obama himself admits, his administration's efforts to help the United States recover from the Great Recession are certainly not "done" -- and the stimulus did not create nearly as many jobs as his economists projected -- yet he is decidedly now a two-term proposition.
The Fall of Putin --Masha Gessen
"With Russians taking to the streets to protest the recent flawed parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has suddenly ceased to be an inevitable leader. He may think that this spring he will be elected president -- the job he held from 2000 to 2008 -- and serve up to 12 more years in that office. But I, like many Russians, think the regime will fall before the March election or soon after." --Dec. 22, 2011
Masha Gessen, a Moscow-based journalist and author of this year's highly acclaimed The Man Without a Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin, is normally an astute and clear-eyed observer of Russian politics, which made this overly rosy prediction about Russia's pre-election protests all the more surprising. Despite signs of growing opposition, Putin was easily reelected in March and has taken steps to even further limit the activities of government opponents. The unprecedentedly large street protests that greeted his reelection have now mostly fizzled, though in Russian politics, it's always wise to expect the unexpected.
Assad Is Cooked --The Economist
"Syria's President Bashar Assad is unlikely to last the year in office, as the Sunni majority, including senior military men and businessmen, decide that rule by the president's Alawite minority, which makes up about a tenth of the population, cannot be sustained." --Nov. 17, 2011
As usual, the venerable British weekly the Economist was more right than wrong in its "The World in 2012" projections written at the end of last year, but they misjudged one of the biggest political questions of the year: how long Syria's president could hang on. Most observers have been a bit more cautious, though in recent weeks, a number of prominent players, including Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen have been predicting Assad's imminent fall. According to some media reports, the CIA believes Assad will fall in a matter of weeks. We'll see.
No comments:
Post a Comment